Start preparing for 2012 today

If you're familiar with ancient Mayan history, my headline probably led you to expect an article about preparing for the end of the world. Though that might be more practical, depending on your beliefs, today we're talking about my area of expertise—mobile broadband data.

Wherever you are in the world, chances are you're part of a fast-growing legion of users who constantly log on to an increasingly busy mobile network. Years ago, this network was built for voice calls. Today, it's bombarded with an endless stream of data from social networking sites to music and videos.

The upsurge is largely driven by user-friendly smartphones, which will form 50% of the mobile market in Asia-Pacific by 2012 (ah yes, that's where the Mayans come in). That's the critical mass for a ramp-up in smartphone adoption, according to research firm Infonetics.

Smartphones are a dream come true for many mobile users, but for service providers, this explosion in mobile broadband data is daunting. They're facing increased demand for network resources—on both backhaul and radio interfaces—and competitive price pressures.

There were 66% more mobile data subscribers in the Asia-Pacific region in 2009 compared to 2008. This number is expected to multiply three times by 2012 (there it is again).

If you owned a restaurant, you'd be pretty happy if you had 66% more people coming through your door. The problem is, smartphone customers are bringing in food from the store across the street and eating it at one of your tables. Smartphone apps use a lot of network bandwidth—and service providers don't see any revenue. Plus, they need to upgrade their networks to handle more data.

Service providers are facing a margin squeeze that they may not be able to sustain in the long run.

Now, service providers should be planning for carrier Ethernet networks. They can further ease the pain by replacing older 2G or 3G designs that often become data bottlenecks.

Also, network intelligence can help. An intelligent network is able to understand which apps users are accessing, prioritize them and perhaps even charge differently for them.

For example, one service provider's network is being taxed by peer-to-peer downloads that make up 60% of its HSDPA traffic. They expect this to increase as more users fire up their smartphones (there will be three times more mobile data subscribers in Asia by 2012, remember?). With an intelligent network, the service provider can handle the customers that tax its network with P2P downloads differently, perhaps charging a premium.

Data use in a mobile market that's mostly smartphones will be even more intense than today. Can your network handle three times more traffic? Invest in your network by adding intelligence, and you'll be much more prepared for 2012…unless the Mayan's prediction comes true.